Bank of England look out for jobs data revisions

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The ONS revealed that the number of payrolled employees dropped by 109,000 in May, prompting concern among Bank of England officials.

By: Mauricio Alencar

Politics and Economics Reporter

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The Bank of England has relied more heavily on business surveys and research supplied by jobs platforms and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) over fears ONS quality levels have dropped.

The official statistics body is undergoing structural reforms in response to a recent review conducted by Sir Robert Devereux, with changes taking place within senior leadership.

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Unemployment creeps up as firms cut jobs following Reeves tax raid

Unemployment creeps up as firms cut jobs following Reeves tax raid

The poor quality of jobs data, which may not improve substantially until the end of next year, has put rate-setters under greater pressure when making decisions.

City forecasters are divided on the number of interest rate cuts the Bank of England will make in the next 12 months.

Capital Economics believes the unemployment rate will edge up to as much as five per cent, triggered by adjustments to employers tax hikes introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

The pacy decline of the labour market could see rates cut to three per cent next year from the current Bank Rate of 4.25 per cent.

Markets have priced in a low of 3.5 per cent and improved the likelihood of two cuts taking place this year.

But rival consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics takes a different view, claiming official payroll data had “gone haywire” and dropped far more than levels indicated in business surveys.

UK economists Robert Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak claimed job growth would rebound over the summer and payroll falls would be revised up, leading to just one more rate cut in the next year given inflation had proven to be a “modest but persistent” problem.

“A loose labour market is needed to drive wage and price-setting behaviour back to inflation target-consistent rates, and that requires persistently restrictive policy,” the Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts said.

City analysts widely believe increases to average earnings would continue to wind down, potentially falling below the five per cent mark for wage growth in the three months to May.

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Bailey watching labour market softening ‘very closely’

Bailey watching labour market softening ‘very closely’

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